Almost exactly one year ago I posted about the Sixers yearly emotional roller coaster for 2006-present:
The stages of a Sixers season: 2006-> present
1. Expectations
2. Confusion/rationalization
3. Anger
4. Doubt
5. Despair
6. Changes, youth movement
7. optimism (early part of run)
8. Enthusiasm (late part of run)
9. Reality (season over with or without 1 round of playoffs)
10. Excitement over mid 1st round pick with potential
There are several reasons for this. But the main one that troubles me is the yearly realization by coaches/management that the road that must be taken is too painful... and then the cop out response that yields temporary wins at the expense of puitting off the future. In nearly every case the team was ready to bottom, but instead elected for a quick fix of using vets and playing young players out of the right position in order to try and win a few meaningless games:
2006/7:
Ready to bottom out with the AI trade in December, but instead take on stabilizing vets (Miller and Joe Smith.) Make a late run at respectability. Go from worst record at the AI trade to #12 pick in draft.
2007/8:
Slow start, then legitimate late run (triggered through young talent.) Sounds great, until they decide to go all in for winning now by holding onto Miller (actually tried to extend him) and commit 200M to Brand/Iguodala/Williams. Ignored the obvious long term financial issues this could cause as these contracts escalate over the next 5 years, figuring that riding vets like Miller and Brand can win now and they can deal with the financial consequences later.
2008/9:
After initial struggles sending out the logical line-up of Miller/Iguodala/Young/Brand/Sam they got scared of initial struggles. This despite the fact that these starters were actually successful (the bench gave up leads) and they had to know there would be a big adjustment period to sending out a 20 year old Young at SF and Iguodala at SG and Brand returning from injury. This was a line-up to win long term and win in the playoffs, but they bailed after one month- a week before Brand was lost to injury.
Then instead of using the remainder of a lost season to develop their future with Young at SF and Speights at PF and see what they had with Lou at PG... they elect to win now with Young at PF and relegate the mistake prone rookie Speights to riding the pine. To further steal some wins they keep Miller past the deadline and never even learned if Williams can really play PG. They make a run to the playoffs, knowing Miller was gone as soon as the season ended. Again, an empty run led by a vet on his way out and young players used out of position or benched in the desire for wins over development.
2009/10:
Takes us to the present. Again they start the season trying to develop the future combo of Iguodala/Young at SG/SF. They give Speights heavy minutes. They even start giving promising PG of the future Holiday nearly 30 min a night from 11/25-12/25... until the losses became too much to bear. Just like in 2006 they had one of the worst records in the league, with the nadir in December, much like the previous seasons...
And again they abandon the future. They limit the natural mistakes that come from playing the youngest, most promising players in exchange for adding AI and playing more vets. Here are the facts:
On 12/26 the Sixers lost to Utah, dropping their record to 7W - 23L. Since that time the team has gone 5W - 3L.
Here are the average minutes since 12/26:
Speights: 11 min/game (previously averaged 23 min/game)
Thad: 27 min/game (previously averaged 37 min/game)
Jrue: 16 min/game (previously averaged 27+ min/game the previous month)
the three key young prospects are playing for about 1/2 the combined minutes they used to. Its not all because the added AI, but his 30 minutes have to come from somewhere, and they are not coming from Iguodala, Sam, Brand or Green.
Jordan wants to win at all costs to save his job, likely same with E.S.- same as Mo and BK before them. Year after year the Sixers start badly then ride vets like Joe Smith, Andre Miller, Willie Green, Reggie Evans and now AI in an attempt to stabilize the losing and save face (and save their jobs.) Where does this get us except mediocrity and pushing back the future? It is an embarrassment, and someone needs to call them on it. If not the media then at least the bloggers.
Of course vets make less mistakes then young players. Players 19-22 will be inconsistent on defense and make more mistakes as compared to vets. That's why the top teams are full of vets... But the Sixers are NOT a top team. They are team that needs to rebuild and develop/evaluate their young players. I know the coaches and front office are not this shortsighted- but they are afraid for their jobs, and will knowingly harm the future to keep their jobs.
Time will tell over the next few months whether this team is truly committed to rebuilding around youth. Committed to developing and evaluating their current young players without fear of missing the playoffs. Hopefully they will make whatever painful moves are necessary to open up a road to financial flexibility. Hopefully they will finally have coaches and management who develop and evaluate talent and adhere to a system that stresses defense, learning and accountability instead of empty wins and hiding young players from any possible mistakes. But I would not blame you for not holding your breath.
Much more likely we see moves to ensure this team limps into the playoffs, and stays towards the back of the middle of the pack for the foreseeable future.